06/07/2011
“The US presidential election is different from any other election because the electoral college representation system makes demographic changes a determining factor in the election of the President. In fact, each State gets the same number of electoral votes as members of the Congress: it is constituted by two senators per State and a number of representatives that changes according to the population of each State”
“Today, independent voters are in control of the outcome of the presidential election in 2012. If between 1980 and 1998 the parties’ battle was over the 20% of independents, in the period between 2006 -2012 they represent 40% of votes. It is mainly due to the decrease of party affiliation in the US”
“For the 2012 election, the odds seem to be pretty good for the Republicans: they will gain votes given that the States that voted for Obama in 2008 now have less electoral votes owing to the decrease in their population”
“Since the 2010 midterm election, the Democrats hold the lowest percentage of seats in State legislatures since 1928. Moreover, it was the biggest off-year election pick-up by either party in the House of Representatives since 1938, when Roosevelt was President”
“The 2010 election result showed that Obama and the Democrats wrongly focused on ‘social engineering’ – such as the Health Care reform – rather than the economy and jobs. It is the same thing that is happening in Spain”
“The two biggest mistakes that Obama made was ‘lecturing’ the American people, rather than listening to them, and also declaring war on the business community”
“More than 55% of unemployed Americans are over 55 years old: I don’t think that jobs are going to come back for these people, mainly because technology has made their old jobs obsolete”
“In the United States, more than 50% of US households pay no federal income tax. It means that we have a tax system that exempts a significant number of citizens from paying for programs that benefit everyone, including national defense, public safety, infrastructure and education”
“According to a June 2011 poll, 43% of the independent voters are against Obama and only 29% are in favor. Without a doubt, they will make the difference in the 2012 election. Because of the growth of the unemployment rate, the economy will be the key factor; but Foreign Policy – Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya but also the future of the Mexican Government – will be equally determinant”