19/09/2013
Corinne Deloy is author of the European Elections Monitor (EEM) for the Robert Schuman Foundation and project manager at the Institute for Political Studies (Sciences Po)
61.8 million Germans, i.e. 400,000 less than in 2009 are being called to ballot on 22nd September next to renew the members of the Bundestag, the lower chamber of parliament. 3 million young people will be voting for the first time, i.e 4.8% of the total number of voters. Amongst the latter 12.4 million are over 70 (20.10%), whilst 9.9 million (16%) are under 30.
38 political parties are running in the federal election 9 of which are represented in the two chambers of tbe present parliament. The German political landscape, which has been stable for a long time (4 of the 6 parties represented in the Bundestag have been there since 1949), has developed over the last 20 years. The Greens emerged in 1993 and the reunification of 1990 witnessed the entry of the Democratic Socialist Party into parliament (PDS), which then became the Left Party in 2007 (DL). This year two new parties are running: the Pirate Party (P) and the Alternative for Germany (AfD).
The polls undertaken over the last few years in Germany reveal that there is a confidence crisis regarding the elites and at the same time these same elites have lost some of their authority, notably after the international economic crisis. The citizens for their part no longer trust finance dominated capitalism.
Never have the Germans so wanted the outgoing government to remain in place after this election (65% of them in March), i.e. the highest score since 1994. Nearly three-quarters of those interviewed say they approve the action taken by outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel (Christian-Democratic Union, CDU). Unemployment which lies at 6.8%, rising wages, and public finances, which have also returned to stability, are not necessarily factors that will push the Germans towards political alternation.
The main issue is not really whether Angela Merkel will win rather than to wonder with whom the chancellor will govern. Neither of the two “traditional” coalitions (alliance between the CDU and the Democratic Liberal Party (FDP) on the one hand and between the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens (DG) on the other) - do not appear to be likely after the ballot on 22nd September next.
Grand coalition? An all time first union of three parties? But who knows that the answer to this question might be. The balance of power between the five main parties will decide the colour (s) of the next German government.
The poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, published on 17th August last forecasts that the CDU will win 41% of the vote on 22nd September far ahead of the SPD, which is due to win 25%. The Greens are due to come third with 13%. The Left Party is due to win 8% of the vote and the FDP only 5%. Together the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats are due to win 46% of the vote - against 38% for the left (social democrats and greens). “Those who think that these elections have already been decided upon and that Angela Merkel will remain Chancellor whatever happens may find things very different after the polling stations close. The result of the election is everything but certain,” stressed the outgoing Chancellor. The poll published by ZDF television can but confirm her fears since this revealed that nearly three-quarters of the electorate (72%) were not ruling out choosing a party other than the one they say they are going to vote for on the day.
“The federal elections are always played out in the last six weeks,” maintains Nils Diederich, a political expert from the Free University of Berlin. This last month of the campaign can be decisive.