12/03/2014
Adrián Ibáñez is a political scientist
Last Sunday legislative elections were held in Colombia, just three months after a presidential election in which President Juan Manuel Santos opts for a second term of four years. The candidate coming out of these elections will have to discuss the results of the negotiations with the FARC, which still continue in Cuba. That's why the new composition of Congress is so important to identify the different actors and their importance with regard to upcoming events.
Santos' Party of the U came first both in the House of Representatives and in the Senate, but while the presidential majority was clear in the former, the battle for the Senate was much harder. Santos' party reached 21 seats in the Senate, which it completes with its allies of the Liberal Party (17 seats) and of the Radical Change–of his ticket running mate in May, Germán Vargas Lleras–(9 seats).These 47 seats are not enough to have a sufficient majority after the emergence, as the second most voted party, of the new political party of former President Alvaro Uribe, Democratic Centre (19 seats), as opposition to Santos. The Conservative Party, aligned with the government in the last term but with its own presidential candidate, with its 19 seats will have the key to shoring up or not the santista majority. The other side, the left, has only managed to get 10 senators from different parties (Green Party and Alternative Democratic Pole).
Former president Uribe has managed to capitalise on his popular support in the elections to which he concurred as a senator, already becoming the main opposition force. The new Colombian political map thus introduces a new actor in the institutions who will significantly influence the negotiations with the guerrilla. Uribe's presidential candidate, former Minister Oscar Iván Zuluaga, this way manages to get a strong backing in a campaign where he will have to win the confidence of those who have now returned to vote for Uribe. For his part, President Juan Manuel Santos is clearly leading the polls, but since Sunday he could see his position somewhat weakened before possible agreements with the FARC and thus be forced to concur to a second round.
However, the election results show the success of institutions in Colombia. The already third Latin American economy has an established democracy based on pluralism and dominated by parties which share a common direction for the country: that of prosperity, the rule of law and institutional stability. Therefore, the political scenario that's now opening and which will be substantiated in May could change the direction of the negotiations with the FARC or the internal management of the country in various fields, but it should not alter the role of Colombia as one of the region's good performers, along with its partners in the Pacific Alliance.