17/06/2014
Adrián Ibáñez is a political scientist
The president Juan Manuel Santos (50.95%) finally won with almost six points over Óscar Iván Zuluaga (45%) the ballots were opened until the counting of the votes and were marked almost exclusively by the debate on peace, the dialogue with the guerrillas and its conditions. For twenty years in Colombia there were not presidential elections with such a tight difference, when Ernesto Samper won with little difference against the future president Andrés Pastrana. However, abstention was not avoided by the high electoral rivalry and reached 54% and only 16 million people out of the 33 million voters exercise their right.
After the first round in which Zuluaga surpassed the president by four points, Santos enlarged his coalition –initially formed by the U Party, the Liberal Party and the Radical Change– towards his left, obtaining the support of the leader of the Alternative Democratic Pole, Clara López, and of the mayor of Bogotá, Gustavo Petro. The binder that unified these heterogeneous groups was to favor the achievement of the agreement within the open dialogue framework with FARC and ELN guerrillas.
On the other hand, the candidate of the Democratic Centre, the party founded by former Colombian president, Álvaro Uribe, –who already reached a valuable second position in the legislative elections of March– claimed for the importance of eliminate impunity after the debate with the guerrillas and he managed to add to his candidature the Conservative Party of Marta Lucía Ramírez, which was in the third positions in the first round. In this way, the Colombian campaign was outlined under equal conditions and it looks like the ones we used to see in the United States, with a relentless hand to hand combat and mutual espionage accusations and irregular financing.
Colombia grew 4.3% during the four-year term of Santos, unemployment was reduced down to 9.6% and 2.5 million people overcame poverty, but inequality and criminality are still being one of the main problems for Colombians, who maybe they abstain in mass from voting because of the little importance these two issues received during the campaign. However, it seems that Santos took advantage over voters thanks to a competent administration of economy and to his commitment to opening markets (through the conclusion of the TPA with the United States and its support to the Pacific Alliance) and also thanks to an approach to the narco-guerrillas’ issue based on the concept of “peace”.
After the announcement of his victory, Santos said that “it is time for peace with seriousness and firmness, without impunity, because it is the mandate given by Colombians to stop the fifty years of conflict”. Briefly, he wants “a Colombia at a peace with itself”. This engagement will lead to hurry with the advanced dialogue with the FARC in La Habana and the starting dialogue with the ELN, and to publish the agreements within a maximum period of two years and to make them the subject of a delicate referendum which possibly will mark his second mandate.
Santos should also build again his presidential image which certainly has been damaged in the last years and he should secure his own coalition in the Congress, as he did not count any more on the 90% in favor as in his last legislature. In this way he could carry out the most important reforms through the so-called “five locomotives” of the country: infrastructures, agriculture, housing, extractive industries and innovation.
In front of him there is a strengthened opposition lead by the senator and former president Uribe, who will try to create an opposition bloc with his own party and the conservative legislators which will not succumb to the charms of the power. In particular during the process of negotiation with the guerrillas, it is expected that a confrontation could make people’s support to tilt and it could discredit every step made by Santos.
The president, without any doubt, starts a harder mandate than the last one, but the institutional strengthen in Colombia and its consolidation as “good performer” gives hopes for the future.