02/12/2014
José Ruiz Vicioso, MA in the History of Political Thought, University of Exeter
While populism is the most serious threat faced by European democracies – probably since the 20s of the last century,– it does seem particularly striking that an option featuring such ideas is achieving a growing electoral support in the UK, a country proud of its liberal and parliamentary tradition. As is well known, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) has become the centre of British politics in recent years. This party has established last term's political agenda, focusing public debate on two typical populist issues: first, the anti-establishment criticism which profiles the traditional political class as an oligarchy separate from the people and alien to its interests; and second, the criticism to uncontrolled immigration, arising from the UK's membership to the European Union – totally opposed by UKIP.
So far, UKIP had reaped its greatest successes in the European elections. The steady electoral growth experienced in the last decade finally culminated in last May's victory. An unprecedented victory that has evidenced voter discontent with the two major parties, incapable of convincingly defining their position with regard to the EU and immigration, which has already become the first concern of the British people.
UKIP's recent entry in the House of Commons is another milestone in this party's consolidation as a major player in the political game. Its victory in the two by-elections forced by two Conservative MPs defection to UKIP, has demonstrated the electoral potential of this party also in the most important internal elections. UKIP has shown in Clacton and Rochester and Strood – two constituencies with very different socio-demographic profiles – that it can win large majorities, featuring very heterogeneous voters. UKIP threatens not just a particular party, but Westminster's entire political class, as its voters come from both the right and the left of the ideological spectrum.
Their entry in Parliament also carries great symbolic value. UKIP is already in the critical stage of national politics, it already has a voice at that stage and, henceforth, it will have more public presence and even more media visibility. Resources that it will surely use to continue gaining support.
Given this situation, what type of threat does UKIP represent in the upcoming general elections of 2015? Although the first-past-the-post electoral system represents a barrier to the emerging parties, UKIP has already shown that it is not an insurmountable barrier. If it focuses its efforts in the constituencies where it has greater possibilities, it may win, as the polls predict, a significant number of seats. Given the low probability of the elections ending in a sufficient majority for one of the two major parties, UKIP could be set to influence the formation of government in 2015. That is, in fact, the goal declared by its leader Nigel Farage: to become the force that determines the next government, subject to the immediate withdrawal of the UK from the European Union and the implementation of a program that only responds to 'what people want to hear.'