11/12/2014
Mira Milosevich, Lecturer of International Relations at IE University, School of International Relations.
On 4 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the citizens of his country in his traditional speech on the state of the nation. This annual address, which can be divided into three parts – Economy, Foreign and Defence Policy – is intended primarily for the Russian people and describes the medium-term strategy of the Kremlin. According to the Russian President, the next four or five years are going to be very difficult and critical for Russia. Given the popular belief that the Russians are a nation of survivors who thrive in difficult situations and never give up, Putin proclaimed that they must face the challenges and win and, presenting himself as the only man capable of ensuring the stability of country, proposed 'not waste a good crisis like this one.'
Putin acknowledged that Western sanctions, combined with the sharp fall in oil prices, have seriously hurt the Russian economy, but proposed new economic measures to mitigate these effects: tax freeze, easing restrictions and other forms of administrative burdens on small and medium enterprises, avoiding capital flight through a tax amnesty offer and rebuilding the Russian scientific and technological potential. The measures themselves are not bad, but they do raise the question of whether they will be sufficient to improve the dire economic situation. In other words, whether these measures of economic liberalisation have not arrived too late. The Russian President, despite his promises of the past 15 years with him in office, have never implemented them. The economic success of his administration relied almost exclusively on high oil prices. The announced measures would have been much more effective in times of economic boom.
With regard to foreign policy, Putin has justified the annexation of Crimea as a 'historic reunification', being a sacred land for the Russians; but he also talked about the war in Ukraine and the need to prepare for a long period of tension with the West, and therefore the need to diversify Russia's international connections (specially with non-Western countries like China and India). To cement the patriotic unity of the people, he resorted to the old scapegoat of the foreign enemy, accusing the West, and particularly the US, of the war and presenting them as a 'global danger' and a particular threat to the Russians. According to Putin, the West has always tried to prevent the strengthening of Russia. But despite these accusations, the President has pledged to avoid isolation and xenophobia, offering his support for the fight against international terrorism and Ebola.
The major emphasis, as expected, fell on matters of security and defence. He promised two incompatible things: that Russia will not enter into a new arms race and that nobody will be militarily superior to Russia, and gave assurances that his army is ready for traditional combat and for 'non-standard' warfare (or 'hybrid war'). His speech, for domestic consumption, intends to reassure the Russian public opinion, but announces a greater confrontation between Russia and the West, which could involve progress towards an undesirable armed conflict.