07/04/2015
On March 22 and 29, France held the elections for the 101 departmental councils in which the country is divided. These territorial bodies have undergone significant changes since the constitutional reform of 2011 and the new law of 2013, which changed their composition, method of election and powers, although the conservative majority of the Senate saved them from a disappearance sponsored by the regional reforms conducted by the socialists of François Hollande.
With the new system, these bodies are elected every six years, all at the same time–thus putting an end to the election by halves every three years–which gives these provincial elections a larger national political significance, as they act as a test of the political situation of the central government and the president. Now, in the new 2,054 cantons (with a population ranging between 20,000 and 50,000, approximately) a pair of candidates are elected, compulsorily male-female, who, once elected, operate independently in the chamber.
The results were marked by pre-election alliances, both from the right and the left, forged over the previous months. Among the forces of the centre-right (UMP, UDI and MoDem) agreements were widespread, allowing many joint bids and thus prevent the loss of voters in a system as sharply marked by majorities as the French. This allowed them to get a very good result and, once again, become the leading political force in both electoral rounds (the lists labelled Right Wing or Right Wing Union obtained 36.6% of the votes in the first round and 45% in the second round). This represents the presidency in a total of 67 departments, winning 28 changes of government and losing only one presidency in a department where it was ruling.
The forces of the left have lost electoral thrust due to political differences following the implementation of some reforms in the economy and industrial relations taken by the current Socialist government of Manuel Valls. This lack of joint lists has led the Socialist Party to be relegated to third force nationwide, surpassed in votes by the National Front. Many leftist lists were already eliminated in the first round, which led to a poor overall result, with the loss of 27 department governments, down from 61 to 34.
And the third main political force, embodied in the extreme-right National Front–albeit it became the second most voted party in France in the first round, with 25.2% of the vote–however, due to their lack of allies, it reaped a very poor outcome with 22.6% of the vote in the second round. A defeat in its objective of at least winning the presidency of one department, having only achieved the election of 62 representatives in departmental chambers out of a total of 4,108 elected officials. In their traditional strongholds, however, it has managed to mobilize an average 30-40% of the votes. In any case, having been the first force in votes in the European elections last May, this result can be seen as an electoral defeat of Le Pen's party.
On the very night of March 29, the president of the UMP, Nicolas Sarkozy, claimed the victory for his party and its allies and launched the message that the French right wing is the only credible alternative to the current socialist government and President Hollande. And the following day, Sarkozy's greatest internal rival in the right wing, Alain Juppé, precandidate for the presidential nomination of the UMP for 2017, said that the strategy of unity of the centre-right vote has been the reason why the citizens have seen that the alternative duo Hollande-Le Pen does exist, but always from the UMP-UDI-MoDem union, which would have allowed them to become the first electoral force again and thus close the internal dissensions of the past two years, which in practice nullified any positive political message to voters.
These statements have lowered Sarkozy's excessive triumphalism, who developed a great campaign of political glorification of his own persona as France’s only chance to avoid the disaster that the government of any other party except the UMP would mean. The future seems brighter than it was a few months ago, but if Sarkozy wants to reach the Elysée Palace in 2017, he shall have to submit to the voters a project getting the French economy out of recession while keeping the pillars of the welfare State and complying with the agreements signed with the European institutions to cut spending and fiscal and financial discipline. And all this without breaking the electoral union with the smaller coalition parties, as was the case of the Socialists with other leftist forces since their coming to power in 2012.
It is true that the danger of a right-wing government seems averted by a majoritarian electoral system and the lack of alliances of the National Front, but this party continues getting, election after election, about a quarter of the votes of the French. Traditional bipartisanship has therefore disappeared in favour of an imperfect tripartism which could drag the republican political forces toward a populism unwanted by everybody, a scenario that alarms the institutions in Brussels and Frankfurt.
Nicolas Sarkozy is currently the leader of the right, but he still has several lawsuits pending for the funding of past campaigns. The challenge looming before him is great because he has to try to please his own party, the centrist allies and most of the French to give him a second chance to rule and demonstrate that he will not repeat mistakes and inactions of the past. We will soon have an answer, as the next election, regional, will be held in nine months, in December, in the penultimate stronghold of socialist power. A new defeat of the government will mean its political end, but both the National Front and the forces of the left will react after the results of the departmental elections. And there, the UMP and its president, will have to make the electorate, tired of crises of all kinds, enthusiastic again.