26/10/2015
Ignacio Alberni
In the 42 elections for the House of Commons of the Canadian Parliament (the Senate is not elected), held on Monday, October 19, the Liberal Party obtained an absolute majority of seats (184 of 338) with 39.5% of the vote. In the previous term, the liberals – of centre-left wing – were the third force (with 34 seats and 20% of votes), having obtained at the time the worst result ever reaped by the party that has governed Canada the longest since the creation of the Federation in 1867. Its new leader, the Québéquois Justin Trudeau (43 years old, son of the former Prime Minister from 1968-1979 and 1980-1984, the liberal Pierre Elliott Trudeau, father of the current Canada and bête noire of Québécois nationalism) will become Prime Minister in place of the defeated Conservative leader, Stephen Harper, who has been leading the government for three terms, from 2006 (the last, since 2011 with absolute majority). This time, the Conservative Party obtained 99 seats (with 32% of the vote). The leftist Neodemocrat Party, until now the official opposition, has been relegated to the third place (44 seats, 19.7% of the votes).The nationalist Bloc Québécois has won 10 seats in the French-speaking province (winning 6 seats but down from 23.4% of the vote in 2011 to 19.3% now), and the Greens keep the seat they already had in British Columbia (with 3.4% of votes nationwide). Turnout for this election has been 68.5%, the highest participation rate since 1993.
If we examine the polls published since the announcement of the elections, results have been unexpected and the campaign decisive. Two months ago, the neodemocrats were leading the polls and the liberals could not seem to get past their third position. The elections looked like a contest between the neodemocrat left and the conservatives in government, but Trudeau was able to raise an exciting campaign and overcome the accusations of political inexperience. In addition, the neodemocrats and conservatives engaged in a controversy over the use of the niqab by Muslim women, alienating them from the core layers of society. In the last week, forecasts pointed to an insufficient liberal majority. The Conservatives raised the banner of Harper's economic management and the international achievements of the last term of office, particularly the signing of the Trans-Pacific Treaty on economic cooperation or the Canadian military presence in Afghanistan and other countries in conflict, and warned of the instability that a coalition government of the left would bring. Mulcair‘s neodemocrats showed a moderate economic program without deficit, baffling its electorate, while Trudeau defended a social democratic economic policy, with deficits in the early years of government and was reluctant about getting involved in international peace missions. But above all, the opposition managed to turn the election into a referendum on Prime Minister Harper and his divisive policies of Canadian society. A case of corruption in the conservative ranks of the Senate did the rest. In this context, Trudeau managed to appear as a moderate and regenerating leader, and in a country with a majority electoral system, as a helpful vote for the anticonservatives.
The Liberals won in eight of the ten provinces, plus the three northern territories. Especially significant is the victory in Quebec (40 of 78 MPs), the first since 1988, and with nationalists obtaining the worst result in votes ever achieved. Twenty years after the 1995 referendum which was nearly won by the secessionists, the question of Quebec had no role in the campaign. If Harper has been able to govern with hardly no conservative representation in Quebec (5 members in 2011), Trudeau now has a handful of Liberal MPs in the province, which will give Quebec influence in the federal government.
The Conservative Party is facing a primary election to choose a replacement for Harper. After nearly a decade in power, the balance of his government includes a good economic management, the pacification of the Federation-provincial relations or having placed the demands of the Canadian West in the heart of Ottawa's Government. But at the same time, his detached governance attitude and his patronising leadership have failed to connect with broad sectors of the Canadian society which, as soon as a credible and focused leader has emerged, has turned its back to him