11/01/2016
Only two weeks before the elections of 20 December 2015 some very clear messages were delivered so that citizens could be aware of what to expect. Perhaps the most important one was stated by an excellent economist, much criticized for accepting his appointment as Deputy Minister of Economy in the Zapatero government, Jose Manuel Campa. Now, in a statement to Aida Collado, published in Gijón's newspaper El Comercio, on November 29, 2015, he declared nothing less than what follows. First, it is necessary to solve the problems of indebtedness and excessive unemployment, but "if we understand the recovery in terms of the growth of GDP, it is growing (recovery does exist here), in terms of employment, jobs are also beginning to grow." The threats of indebtedness logically push him to argue that "although the recovery has begun, the crisis is not yet over."
To this he adds the serious risks that the Spanish economy is facing. His words are still very timely: "I think – he says – it has no major risks beyond fatigue of reforms," to which he adds "fatigue if we continue going in the same direction, thinking that with short term miracles we will achieve long-term solutions," although indeed, our recovery could be hindered by the disappearance of what he calls "tailwinds," such as "falling oil prices, low interest rates in the euro zone, low financing costs and depreciation of the euro." And to this we must add the disruption of many aspects of the structure and disposition of the Bank of Spain, the actions of Elvira Rodriguez in the Spanish Stock Exchange Commission (CNMV), the cancellation of a whole range of decisions related to Spanish Savings Banks, many of them bankrupt because our financial policy did not follow Jaime Terceiro's message in the special issue of Información Comercial Española in December 1995, lured – I think – by the risks – unevenly – undertaken by Banks and Savings banks in the crisis of 1977. Now, thanks to those amendments José Manuel Campa can confidently say: "I think that the crisis of the financial system is completely over. Next year, the European bank will make a stress analysis, and my prediction is that Spanish banks will pass those tests. This prediction comes with a trap though, because they also did well in the 2014 analysis, and since then the situation has improved."
He added: "The important thing is to think that our society as a whole has gone through a difficult and tough time, but in an exemplary manner. The adjustment of the Spanish economy (I add, the one which corresponded to Rajoy's Government) has been very high. If we look at the adjustment that has taken place since 2008 in the current account deficit, in real estate, in competitiveness, in total exports, it has been done with everyone's effort, with social peace and stability . . . There are things we can be proud of after this difficult time."
After delivering Campa's judgment, incontrovertible, now everything is being judged in another way. Economists have already judged it, but a number of economics ignorants are now saying the opposite. Sometimes we have to think that the fair reaction to this is just what an irritated Alice said, transcribed by Lewis Carroll in the epigraph "Who Stole the Tarts" of his work, much cherished by economists thanks to Robertson, and prefaced by its author in the Christmas of 1896: "Stupid things!"