16/03/2016
- US elections: a large part of the electorate is voting “anti sistema”
- If Trump is the Republican nominee count on a Hillary Clinton victory
It is increasingly likely that the two choices before the US electorate in November 2016 will be Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. After March 15, Hillary Clinton is on track to be the Democratic nominee. After March 15, where Trump won Florida, North Carolina and Illinois, he needs around 60% of the remaining delegates. This is possible. If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, Hillary Clinton will win an historic victory and the Republicans will likely lose the Senate and possibly the House.
In the Republican Party, the question is: will Donald Trump reach the 1237 delegates before the convention in July so that there is no second vote on the nominee? If he does not reach 1237, there will be a fight and many delegates will be willing to vote for an alternative.
Trump has to accumulate 1237 delegates before the convention in July. The anti-Trump vote is now split between two candidates--Senator Ted Cruz (Texas) and Governor John Kasich (Ohio). Both Cruz and Kasich won their home states and have on incentive to quit. It is possible that between the 2 of them they will win enough states to hold Trump below 1237. What is clear is that primary process will go on until June 7. If one recalls, the Democratic race in 2008 between Obama and Clinton went into early June so this is not completely unusual.
On the Democratic side, there is almost no way for Hillary Clinton to lose the nomination.
Each party is a coalition of interests groups and demographics. The US system has much weaker political parties then Spain. For example, members of congress run in congressional districts and have to win internal election to be the party's nominee. In Spain, deputies are placed on lists where the order of the lists are decided by the party. This gives a party such as the PP much more power over its deputies.
The “primary system” in the US was set up to allow for a broad number of candidates to compete as opposed to a system of “dedazo.” In the last 40 or 50 years the Republican party has nominated through this system many strong (and some less strong) candidates including: Ronald Reagan, George HW Bush, George W Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney. Unfortunately, it looks like the primary system has “failed” by producing a very poor candidate such as Trump.
More broadly, the election has been characterized by two “anti sistema” candidates.
This is an election with a large part of the Democratic Party voting someone who would be very comfortable in Spain's PSOE, namely Senator Bernie Sanders, a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist. Sander's appeal is namely with white, urban, highly educated, progressive voters. He has limited or no appeal to African Americans. In 2008, Obama was able to win the Bernie Sanders vote AND the African American vote. On March 15, Senator Sanders chances to win the Democratic nomination were largely finished with Hillary Clinton all of the 5 states in play. Hillary will be the Democratic nominee.
This is also an election where 3 times married, 4 times bankrupted, a very pro-abortion (until about a year ago), an anti-free trade and long-time donor to the Democratic party is on track to win the Republican nomination, namely Donald Trump. In the last 50 years it would have been impossible for Donald Trump to get the Republican nomination.
I signed an open letter of Republican Foreign Policy leaders against Trump.
The last time a Republican won the Presidency was George W. Bush in 2004. He won that election with 44% of the Hispanic vote, close to 10% of the African American vote and a small majority of the White vote.
If Trump is the nominee, Trump will likely receive 10% of the Hispanic vote, 1% of the African American vote and he would need something close to 70% of the White vote--something that Ronald Reagan did not achieve in 1984 when he won 49 states and won a landslide victory against Walter Mondale.
What has changed? Many voters do not feel they have been gaining economic ground with wages stagnant for many over 15 years. Other voters have been on the losing side of the bargain of globalization with a fear that increased trade has meant the loss of jobs overseas. Other voters have “war fatigue” and are tired of being the target of terrorism that seems to emanate from Muslim world. Other voters believe they have been deceived by the political class on issue such as the 11 million illegal immigrants in the US who they see as driving down wages, not paying taxes, receiving health care and education services “for free”. Politicians have been promising to fix the problem for 30 years and the problem is not “fixed.” Other voters feel that the United States is not the power it used to be or the country that it used to be and they are worried about the future. Trump seems to speak for these frustrated voters but there are not enough of them to win the Presidency. Trump can be seen as US version of Silvio Berlusconi --at best.
If Trump is the nominee, count on a large Hilary Clinton victory in November.
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Daniel Runde served in the George W. Bush Administration and was a foreign policy adviser to Gov Romney during the 2012 campaign and to Governors Scott Walker and Jeb Bush in the 2016 cycle.