17/03/2017
Hubert Beusmans es secretario para Europa de la CDA
The winner of the Dutch general elections, with 33 seats is the Liberal party of prime minister Mark Rutte (VVD) followed by the Populist party (Wilders, PVV) with 20 seats and third with 19 seats both the Christian Democrats (CDA) and the Social Liberals (D66). Social Democrats (PvdA) are the biggest losers, they fall from 38 to 9 seats. Some new parties gained seats, Forum voor Democratie,2 seats (Populist right wing party), and DENK, 3 seats (Islamic populist party). The Dutch parliament consist of 150 seats, on 17 million inhabitants (13 million able to vote). The appearance rate was 80% which is 6% more than last election (2012). The Dutch systems consist of a coalition driven government. This means that 76 seats must be found to form the government. The biggest party is entitled to start the negotiations and search for a coalition. Probably 4 (maybe even 5 parties) are needed to form the government. This election can be characterised as an election with great media coverage (national and international) and an very active participation of the people in public debate. Also social media played an important role in reaching out to voters, and communicating statements of political parties. General conclusion is that the (European) populist movement was stopped by this election. Several political leaders mentioned this in their speeches. However this should be nuanced. Below I provide a short analyse of the Dutch general elections by several issues that dominated the election campaign.
Four years since last election
The last time the Dutch went for elections after a full term in which the government hasn’t fallen was in 1998. It is remarkable because the Liberals (VVD) and Social Democrats (PvdA) coalition had many differences. They were the two major political rivals in the 2012 election campaign, they had to fight the economic crisis and unemployment and many ministers were dismissed by scandals during the term. However they succeeded for the first time in 20 years to end a full term. Due to ending the regular term all the political parties were very well prepared when the actual campaign started.
New small parties
Remarkable also is that there were many new parties who participated in the elections. In total 16 parties participate in the election. Two new parties who made it into parliament are DENK and Forum voor Democratie. DENK (Islamic populist party, 3 seats) were already in parliament as a splinter of the Social Democrats. DENK is a controversial party who preaches equality and a Netherlands for all people. Their constituency consists mainly of people with a migrant background, 2nd and 3d generation. They fight the right wing populists and seem to have tight connections with Turkey's government. The second new party in parliament is Forum voor Democratie (right wing populist, 2 seats) is an anti-Europe and pro referenda party. They fight the elite and want as they call it; to break the “party-cartel” of the ruling class. These parties aren’t serious candidates to form a new government.
Small parties already seated in parliament also won. The senior party (50+) doubled their seats to 4, they want to lower the pension age (from 67 to 65), raise government pensions, and lower taxes for the elderly. Partij voor de Dieren (party for the animals) went from 2 to 5 seats. GroenLinks (green left) is the overall winner of the elections by winning 10 seats (from 4 to 14 seats). Frontman Jesse Klaver started an USA like campaign by which he started a movement instead of using old party terminology and structures. He succeeded in attracting many people who aren’t active in a political party but feel political.
Main topics of discussion in campaign
The elections was mainly focused on national topics. Protecting and preserving Dutch identity and Dutch culture dominated the debates. Also benefits for elderly people (pension age) and climate change was broadly discussed. Unemployment and measures to modernise the labour market divided left and right wing parties. As did national safety issues and increasing defence expenditure. International topics like challenges the European Union faces, refugee crisis and development hardly had any airtime in the debate.
No 'Game changer'
There haven’t been any major shocks in the poles during the whole campaign. In the beginning of the campaign the Populist party (PVV) and Liberals (VVD) dominated the poles. During the campaign four parties (VVD, PVV, D66, CDA) came close to each other (around 20 seats). However the Liberals have lead the poles during the whole campaign. From a week on to election day the media was waiting for a game changer in which major shocks would change the poles. This didn’t happen. As a result of this, the overall sentiment of the campaign was entitled as boring, however discussions and debates were more substantive than in previous election campaign. The Liberals and Populist have tried to make it a dual fight between the two of them, they haven’t succeed in that. The media and voters didn’t look for the confrontation between these two, but preferred the debate of the whole political spectrum. With retrospect as game changer can be seen the conflict between the Netherlands and Turkey which occurred four days before election day. This gave the prime minister an opportunity to show his leadership.
No shows at debates
Remarkable was the campaign strategy of the populist parties. This could be entitled as a sort of Trump-style of campaigning. It was based on an anti-media message (by using social media) and a “no show” at debates on national television. The Populist party (PVV) only came into play on national television the last two days before election day. Mr. Wilders cancelled all debates and mainly used twitter to communicate with the world and his opponents. DENK (Islamic populist party) cancelled the election debate the day before election day, and didn’t allow media access to their election day manifestation.
Diplomatic conflict Netherlands and Turkey
Four days before election day The Netherlands got into a major diplomatic conflict with Turkey. The Turkish minister of foreign affairs, at that moment in Germany, and the Turkish minister on family affairs weren’t allowed access to The Netherlands to speak on a political rally on the Turkish referendum of 16th of April. The Dutch government decided to block the rallies, citing "risks to public order and security". An estimated 400,000 people of Turkish origin live in The Netherlands. However the restricted Turkish minister on family affairs appeared in the Netherlands at the consulate in Rotterdam. A large group of Turkish people gathered in front of the consulate. After discussion the minister had been escorted back to Germany out of The Netherlands. Riots started in Rotterdam at that moment. The conflict between The Netherlands and Turkey hasn’t been solved yet and is getting from bad to worse. Prime minister Rutte (Liberal, VVD) has acted resolutely and on behalf of national interest. Campaign analyst conclude that by these events he gained electoral gain (also the Islamic party DENK gained by these events). The conflict hasn’t been settled yet.
The future: how to form a new administration?
The Dutch political system is a system of coalition forming. In order to form an administration the administration must collect 76 seats. First there will be an “informateur” appointed by the parliament to look for the majority. This will be someone from the biggest party, the Liberals. When he/she finds a majority these parties will write a political agreement on which they will govern. It will be important that the coalition will also have a majority in the Senate. Four parties will be needed to have the majority in Senate. All the parties have excluded the Populist party (PVV). Socialist (SP) have excluded the Liberals (VVD).
Details results election
VVD: 33 (-8) (Liberals)
PVV: 20 (+5) (Populist)
CDA: 19 (+6) (Christian Democrats)
D66: 19 (+7) (Social Liberals)
GroenLinks: 14 (+10) (Left Green)
SP: 14 (-1) (Socialist)
PvdA: 9 (-29) (Social Democrats)
ChristenUnie: 5 (0) (Confessionals)
Partij voor de Dieren: 5 (+3) (Pary for the Animals)
50Plus: 4 (+2) (Senior Party)
DENK: 3 (+3) (Islamic Populist Party)
SGP: 3 (0) (Confessionals)
Foro para la Democracia: 2 (+2) (right wing populist)