26/04/2017
Eduardo Inclán es Maître en Histoire por la Universidad de Toulouse II-Le Mirail
The first round of the election of the candidate for President of the Republic was held last Sunday April 23. The results were close to the pointers of the surveys and previous polls, which is remarkable these days. Whilst the counting process was prolonged until 4 am, there were not any final surprises, even thought Jean-Luc Mélenchon, candidate of La France Insoumise, asked the media to wait to analyze the results, expecting as comeback. But it did not come.
Thereby, the official results confirmed the victory of the former banker and ministry of Economy, Emmanuel Macron, with over 8.6 million votes, 24% of the votes cast, who will runs for the presidency of the Republic with the second most voted candidate, Marine Le Pen, president of the National Front, with over 7.6 million votes, 21.3% of the ballots. Both candidates have already agreed on a debate on TV next May 3, which show how these leaders finally want to face each other after the everlasting discussions only eleven days away from the first round. The other nine candidates were eliminated, even though there are three cases to underline among them.
The conservative candidate, François Fillon (Les Républicains), falls outside of the second round in spite of being third and obtaining more than 7.2 million votes, 20% of the votes cast. Finally, he couldn’t overcome the crisis of confidence that his familiar finances have produced in the electorate, after the outbreak of the fake jobs of his wife and sons when he was deputy in the National Assembly. It’s the first time the candidate of the Gaullist and liberal right is out of the second round of the presidential elections, which has provoked, since the very election night, a movement for the call of the reunification of the bases of this formation, and the reappearance of internal debates in the formation if predicted.
The media figure of the election night was also the fourth-placed, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing coallition La France Insoumise, which obtained over 7 million votes, 19.5% of the total. This former socialist militant, senator and minister during Lionel Jospin term in office, now, at 65 years old, has become the leader of the coallition winning among the Young, the anticapitalist and the left-wing eurosceptical voters, as well as those who want a change on the Constitution of 1958. And against other figures in politics, he first denied the results in the election night, expecting the comeback versu Fillon and Le Pen and, secondly, to support no candidate in the second round, leaving the doors open to the final active absention, a very criticized attitude, for irresponsible, in almost all the media.
And finally, the fifth-placed of the night, Benoît Hamond, the socialist candidate, who became the great defeated of the night: he obtained 2.26 million votes, the final 6.36%, dragged by a bad campaign which never excited the traditional left-wing voter, and by accumulating the mistakes of his political management during the blocking of the Government of Manuel Valls and the electoral erosion of the very five years of presidency of François Holland, who had to give up the re-election by the bad prospects. Hamon was overwhelmed by the push of the candidacy of Mélenchon for some weeks past, besides from seeing how the most liberal and centrist sector of the PSF, with socialist figures such as the mayor of Lyon or the former Prime Minister Valls, aligned with Macron’s candidacy breaking up the discipline of the party.
In this way, the French citizens have chosen the final match between two models of society quite confronted and with almost nothing in common. Emmanuel Macron is an europeanist and globalization, supporter of accelerating the reforms of the economy and the State Administration, but also to take the rudder and increasing the role of France in the changes that have to occur in the EU as of 2018. He defends that freeing the economy of the current legal burden will bring growth and increased employment to France in the coming years.
On the contrary, Marine Le Pen is an isolationist and denier of participating in the EU, she wants to break with the euro as currency and go back to a national currency controlled exclusively by the Bank of France, apart from imposing the principle of “France debout” or “France First” in both the economy and the society: the expulsion of the foreigner who do not work or provide funding to the State and the reservation of the jobs which will arise in the next years for the nationals. She is supporter of leaning on Russia or Donald Trump’s government to take the control of the borders, the economy or the bilateral trade, even though they’re smaller than those of the current globalised model, but without the control of the French national institutions.
The big parties have already pointed that their candidate in the second round will be Macron, making clear that the functioning of the “republican pact” which avoids the victory of the far-right candidate next May 7. Fillon, Hamon, Hollande, Sarkozy, Valls, Raffarin, Juppé, Ayrault, the heavyweights of LR, PSF and centre parties, have instantly stated their support to the centrist candidate. Only Mélenchon has exposed himself, who refuses to do it, arguing that both candidates are unacceptable. And Christine Boutin, the Christian democrat and former conservative minister, has also stood out, by refusing to vote candidate Macron and considering the possibility voting Marine Le Pen in the decond round, if there is an agreement in the next days, breaking up the calls for the unity of the French conservatives to win in the legislative elections in June.
And against this background, open for the second round, it seems that Macron will become the savior of the current political regime in France, but also of the europeanist and reformist spirit of the France of the XXI century. In spite of the political gaps which his governmental program shows, Macron presents a promising model of changes without a rupture, of innovations without adventures, which hopes to be attractive for many left-wing, right-wing and centre voters. Opposite there’s the personal pull of Marine Le Pen among different profiles in the left and right, which have taken the NF to its best historical result in number of votes, attracting new social sectors to its candidacy, breaking the ceiling of its political project, even though it isn’t likely that it will get the final victory. Thus, Macron will be President next May7, except complete surprise, and he will have the task to attract that rough 40% of voters which have showed themselves supporters of taking down the Fifth Republic towards his government and towards the political system. And Macron is the last home. We will see very soon the success or the failure of this mission.