28/02/2018
Pablo Martín de Santa Olalla Saludes is International Relationships Professor at Universidad Europea de Madrid
On March the 4th, Italy, the third largest economy in the Eurozone and one of the world's leading industrial powers, will hold legislative elections, which will provide as a resolution, the parliament that will guide the 18th legislature of the History of the 1st Italian Republic will emerge. This elections, as has been the case in recent times (in 2013, but not so in 2008) are very difficult to predict since there is no clear candidate for victory, and this time, the lections also render the necessity to take into account that the usual players are for the first time dealing with a new electoral law (Rosatellum bis) that rewards coalitions, in contrast with the detriment of individual parties.
So far, the victory seems to be on the right-wing coalition's side, as it was a few months ago at the regional level in Sicily. Yet, with a different distribution of votes than in 2008, for example: the Forza Italia of Berlusconi, who has once again re-emerged, will be closer than ever to La Liga Norte (now renamed just as Lega) of Matteo Salvini, to the extent they can differ from each other by less than three points. Far behind them will be the Fratelli d' Italia of the Roman and former Minister Giorgia Meloni, who seems to guarantee 5% of the votes which, although fully consolidated, is a long way from the glorious times of the Alleanza Nazionale of Gianfranco Fini, now retired from politics. The main problem of this coalition is that its headliner (Berlusconi) is currently unable to hold public office until November 2019, but Berlusconi has already been looking for a strong alternative as head of the European Parliament, Antonio Tajani, a loyal partner of him for more than two decades.
However, the one who leads the polls is Luigi Di Maio's Movement Cinque Stelle, successor to the 2013 candidate and founder of this "anti-cast" party (Beppe Grillo). Di Maio is surely the weakest candidate of all those who present themselves, but he seeks, and will surely succeed in capping the vote of the discontent, representing a broad stratum of the Italian population with a political class that seems to be seen expensive and inefficient. The key will be in the southern regions of the Mezzogiorno (Apulia, Calabria, Basilicata, Sardinia, Sicily), where Forza Italia, Cinque Stelle and even the Lega will fight until the end for the last vote.
The third contender is the center-left coalition of the former Tuscan Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi. Yet, suffers the consequences of the traditional division of the Italian left, which has prevented all the formations of this part of the political spectrum from presenting themselves together (let us remember that the split of the Democratic Party, known as Articolo I-Movimento Democratico e Progressista, has formed a coalition with Sinistra, Ecologia e Libertà, with the result of being Libres e Iguales). In spite of this, it seems that the coalition led by Renzi can reach 26-27% of the votes thanks mainly to the fact that it has added Emma Bonino's party to the formation (Piu Europa) of Emma Bonino, one of the most prestigious Italian political candidates (it has been an MEP and also head of Foreign Affairs). Bonino is essential in order to appeal both women and progressive votes in a coalition that will also include La Lista Civica of Beatrice Lorenzin, Minister of Health in the Letta’s, Renzi’s and Gentiloni’s Governments.
In that regard, knowing that the north is only a matter of Forza Italia and the Lega, and that in the southern part of the country they have practically no support, they will play Paolo Gentiloni's card forcefully, Prime Minister and who has gained many points in the eyes of the Italians for his rigorous management during one year and three months at the head of the Italian Executive, highlighting his ability to control the strong migratory flows coming from North Africa, mainly from the Libyan Coast. Therefore, if we take into account that the north-central Italy (Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, Las Marcas) is its main source of votes, it will try to increase its number of supporters in the Lazio region, competing in Rome against the formation that is usually the most voted in this region of the country (los Fratelli d' Italia de Meloni).
The fact is that the European institutions are once again holding their breath waiting for the light to be shed on this matter, in an election where abstention can reach "record-high" figures given the candidates' lack of momentum. Above all, the stability begun in Monti's time and continued with Letta, Renzi and Gentiloni can be followed by one more legislature, in a country that still has to do much to combat its large public debt, its high level of youth unemployment and the recovery of a large part of its banking sector. In that line, the most feasible solution, if the polls end up being confirmed at the ballot box, would be a re-release of the pact between the Democratic Party and Forza Italia, being the main question whether Gentiloni will ultimately be commissioned to form a new government or whether, on the contrary, Antonio Tajani would be the one chosen to head the 65th executive in Italian history as a republican.
Translated by David alonso Galera