The latest forecast indicates that 2019 will be a year marked by a slowdown of the world economy and United States, China and the Eurozone’s lowest contribution to global growth. This is happening in a context where global trade tension in starting to be felt. Pedro Antonio Merino (Repsol) and Fernando Fernández (IE Business School) talk in this #FAESTalks with Miguel Marín (FAES) about the forecast for the world and Spanish economy in 2019.
All three agree that the first symptoms of economic weakness are also beginning to be felt in Spain, materialised in less dynamism in the private sector, investment and industrial production. The fall in investment and industrial production is closely related to domestic policy decisions, especially when it comes to tax and labour reform proposals that could deepen the economic slowdown.
Fernando Fernández / “We are moving towards a clear slowdown in the world economy, way more intense than political interference anticipated”
Pedro Antonio Merino / “Unlike China’s, the US economy will not decelerate significantly if interest rates are not raised”
Miguel Marín / “The peak of growth of the cycle has passed. The dark clouds hovering over the global economy could end up affecting the Spanish economy"
Pedro Antonio Merino / “The numbers from the fourth quarter of 2019 disguise the slowdown of private consumption and the negative contribution to investment”
Fernando Fernández / “The growth rate for the last quarter of 2018 will probably be revised downwards”
“Certain political decisions raise the probability of the Spanish economy growing below the 2%”
Miguel Marín / “We will keep growing and creating jobs above the eurozone, but there are signs of weakness”
Towards a new economic crisis?
Fernando Fernández / “We cannot talk about a recession or anything comparable to the 2008 economic crisis”
“What we are discussing is the level of intensity of the slowdown and whether we are going to grow above the 2% or closer to the 1.5%”
Pedro Antonio Merino / “In order to face the slowdown authorities should put some stones in the way of the cycle”
Miguel Marín / “Autumn comes in 2019, not winter, we are not expecting a sudden stop”